Reports that Trump’s big midterm election rally tour to help Republicans has been reduced to the president appearing in red states and districts because the White House only wants to send Trump where he will get a warm welcome tell only part of the story.
It turns out that Trump is needed in those red states because his support is collapsing and threatening to take Republicans down with him.
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Politico reported on Republicans hemorrhaging support in Trump’s adopted home state of Florida:
“I don’t think we are dead yet,” said one GOP county chair in Florida, granted anonymity to speak candidly as the party both nationally and in state has dismissed any possible concerns about the state of play. “We are not on life support. But we are hemorrhaging. The question is: Do we stop the bleeding now, or wait until we reach critical conditions?”
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Also, the GOP voter registration advantage may not be as solid as it appears. An analysis of voter registration conducted by a GOP consultant shows that more than 70% of 5.6 million registered Republicans were enrolled with the party in 2022, the year that DeSantis won his reelection by almost 20 points. Nearly all the growth since then has come from people who switched from Democrat or were not signed up with any party.
In Florida, the problems for Republicans are much the same as they are nationally: the Iran war, inflation, gas prices, diesel prices, Hispanics flipping back to Democrats due to Trump’s immigration policies, and data centers.
When a Republican county chair is talking about the party hemorrhaging in the second-biggest red state in the country, the situation is dire for Republicans.
It gets even worse when Trump’s base of support is fleeing him.