South Carolina Republicans might be watching history repeat itself.
A special election Senate primary on Tuesday, triggered by Sen. Lindsey Graham’s sudden death, has all the makings of their rollercoaster governor’s primary back in June: A front-runner endorsed by President Donald Trump but facing a steep uphill battle to consolidate the field behind her. And the looming threat of a runoff election that could lead to a late surge from another Republican.
Darline Graham is running for a full term to replace her late brother, leading in some public polls over GOP Reps. Russell Fry and Ralph Norman, former Gov. Mark Sanford and businessman Mark Lynch.
The crowded field makes it very unlikely she or anyone else will clinch the majority needed to avoid a bitter runoff. And, aside from deploying his standard playbook of a few Truth Social posts supporting Graham and a last-minute tele-rally scheduled for Monday, Trump has made no public indication of what else he is planning to do to help.
For one particular South Carolina Republican, the situation is all too familiar: Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette had Trump’s backing in the GOP governor’s primary — and then lost to Alan Wilson in the runoff after he rose in the polls and secured a rare double endorsement from the president.
Asked if she wished Trump would have done more to boost her, Evette told POLITICO: “Obviously, yes. I do wish that, but you know, it didn’t happen that way.” She said she has not yet decided who to endorse in the Senate primary and is keeping a close eye on how it plays out.
“Run it back,” said one national GOP operative, granted anonymity to speak openly about how the South Carolina Senate primary may turn into a redux of the governor’s race. “The long and short of it, [Graham’s] got a pretty low ceiling.”
The snap Senate election tees up another test of Trump’s influence over the Republican Party. It will reveal whether the president’s word alone is enough to carry his preferred candidate to the nomination, and the lengths to which he is willing to go to boost his picks — especially ones who find themselves with an uncertain path to victory.
This will be Graham’s first ever contest at the ballot box in a state known for its bruising GOP political battles. Nearly half a dozen local Republican officials and strategists alike believe Graham is in a strong position to win the first round of voting. But whoever secures the second place spot will determine just how much more support she may need from Trump to overcome a one-on-one challenge.
The White House didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Republicans differed on whether Norman or Fry would pose the bigger challenge to Graham’s path to victory in a runoff scenario. Norman boasts a longtime base of conservative support in the state, while Fry, who was elected to Congress in 2022, is seen as an up-and-coming star who has caught Trump’s interest.
“If it’s Darline and Russell, it definitely has some flavors of the governor’s race,” said Tyson Grinstead, an RNC committee member and chair of the Richland County GOP, who is staying neutral in the Senate race. Both candidates have good relationships with the president — and Trump has already proven he’s willing to double endorse in a runoff.
However, Grinstead added, there are some key differences.
The main flaw in Evette’s strategy that Republicans in South Carolina have pointed to was her decision to run too intensely on her ties to the president in lieu of a more issues-first message.
“I think most of the criticism came because I got his endorsement, and everybody was fighting for his endorsement. That’s how I looked at it,” Evette said in an interview, deflecting the criticism. “In states like this that have these runoffs, where very few people come out, I think if you’re not tied into the establishment, I think it hurts you in some form of fashion.”
With the president’s endorsement already secured, Graham is making a clear effort to differentiate herself not only from her field of contenders, but from her brother as well.
In an interview with Fox News announcing her run, Graham made a point to emphasize her intention to focus on domestic issues in contrast to the late senator’s foreign policy-hued legacy. And she brought the same focus to her first debate stage appearance last week.
“If anybody understands the struggles of South Carolinians, it’s me,” Graham said on stage last week, talking about her own cost of living struggles — even as she vowed to support Trump’s pet projects while in office, including the SAVE America Act.
“Of course the campaign’s advertising highlights the Trump endorsement. We’re proud of it, and there’s no question it’s still the gold standard in Republican politics,” said a person familiar with Graham’s approach, granted anonymity to discuss internal campaign strategy.
“But Darline knows an endorsement opens a door, it doesn’t walk through it for you,” this person added. “She’s out there every day earning this on her own, because that’s what voters deserve — a candidate who shows up and makes her own case, not one who assumes the race is already won.”
One of Graham’s key advantages in staving off a late upset lies in her inherited slate of seasoned operatives and statewide campaign infrastructure — a hallmark of Lindsey Graham’s decades of success in the state.
“Lindsey’s team has been the best team in South Carolina,” said Grinstead, who worked for the late senator’s campaigns in past cycles. “They’re organized, they have a grassroots presence, they have field staff.”
Still, Graham is likely to face a competitive runoff regardless of which candidate squeaks into second place. Fry and Norman are seen as the two most likely contenders based on limited public polling available in the race so far. In a glimpse of how fluid and unpredictable the primary has become, a straw poll conducted by the South Carolina Republican Party showed Graham in third place, trailing both Norman and Fry.
The two representatives offer competing flavors for Republicans to choose from.
Fry is seen in both Washington and Columbia as a rising star in the party. He also has a fan in Trump who, in the muddied political waters immediately following Lindsey Graham’s death, said in an interview with Newsmax that the House Republican is “outstanding” and a “very talented person.”
But questions remain about the legal process of what happens to his congressional seat should he win his party’s nomination for Senate and go on to win in the general election. The state party has signaled they would act quickly to address a vacancy to protect House Republicans’ extremely narrow majority in Congress.
Norman, for his part, already gave up his House seat to run for governor earlier this year. He is a longtime fixture of the state’s most conservative factions, who has at times been a thorn in Trump’s side, like when he endorsed former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley for president in 2024.
But he’s seen as the standard bearer for the powerful Freedom Caucus’ ultraconservative politics in the state, and his gubernatorial bid has left him with a statewide operation that he can reactivate in his run for Senate.
Graham, Fry, and Norman all declined to comment.
Both of Graham’s likely top opponents have honed most of their fire on each other — one of the clearest signs that the first round of the primary is shaping up to be a battle for second place. Still, Graham’s allies have lobbed their own attacks against Fry.
Security in Strength, a PAC that once supported Lindsey Graham’s 2024 reelection, is up on TV with an ad that shows an AI-depiction of Fry’s likeness transposed onto a slice of meat in a frying pan, dumped out by Trump with the words “REJECTED” splashed across the screen.
Fry has recently started taking aim at Graham, launching an ad claiming that she “ballooned the size” and doubled the spending of a government agency — but did not specify which. Graham has worked for the South Carolina Vocational Rehabilitation Department and has led the Commission for the Blind since 2019.
“If Russell Fry wants to attack Senator Darline for helping people with disabilities find jobs and live independently, that’s a bold fight to pick,” Abby Zilch, a Graham spokesperson, said in response in a post on social media.