There has been an interesting theory floating around that one of the reasons Donald Trump improved his standing with voters age 18-34 in 2024 was that the youngest among that age group were not old enough to remember how bad the first Trump term was, thus, they were susceptible to Trump’s campaign style of lies and promises that will never come true.
After getting the full Trump treatment for a year plus of his second administration, those voters have come back to Democrats in a big way.
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Politico reported on a new poll of young voters from the nonpartisan Generation Lab:
It shows young Americans planning to vote Democratic in November by a margin of 52 percent to 19 percent. Broken down by party, the data indicates that the GOP has a significant base problem: Just 58 percent of young Republicans say they’ll vote GOP — with nearly a third selecting “neither” or “won’t vote.” By contrast, 85 percent of young Democrats intend to show up for their party at the ballot box.
Just as in 2024, deep discontent with the state of the economy is driving anger at the party in power. Now, 81 percent of young Americans rate U.S. economic conditions as bad or terrible — including 68 percent of Republicans. The younger the age bracket, the more optimism diminishes.
President Donald Trump leads the way, with 41 percent of voters who rate the economy negatively naming him as the top culprit, plus 9 percent who select congressional Republicans. But it’s not just the GOP: Another 31 percent finger corporate greed/large companies. Just 6 percent blame Joe Biden or congressional Democrats.
Young voters aren’t buying the Trump administration’s Biden Derangement Syndrome.
What is deeply interesting is who young voters potentially support for president in 2028.
Kamala Harris leads all polled candidates at 22%. In second place is Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) at 15%. Vice President JD Vance is third at 8%. In fourth, there is a three-way tie at 5% between Pete Buttigieg, RFK Jr., and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA).
Among young Republicans only, JD Vance leads RFK Jr. 25% to 13%. Kamala Harris is in third among young Republicans at 11%.
Kamala Harris’s standing could be real momentum, or it could be name recognition from her 2024 campaign. I suspect we will see.
What’s clear is that candidates like Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg, who might appeal to older Democrats, may have a problem gaining support with young people.
JD Vance looks dead in the water with the youth vote, and the damage that Trump is doing with this group of voters may be catastrophic for Republicans in 2026 and impossible to overcome in 2028.
What do you think? Are younger voters solidly back in the Democratic camp? Let’s talk about it in the comments below.