SpaceX is preparing for two significant events that could trigger substantial volatility in its stock price: the company’s first quarterly earnings report as a public entity Tuesday and the expiration of a lockup period that will release nearly one billion shares into the market on Thursday.
CNBC reports that SpaceX is approaching a pivotal moment in its history as a publicly traded company, facing its inaugural quarterly earnings report alongside a major stock unlock event that analysts warn could create significant market turbulence. The convergence of these two milestones has prompted comparisons to the extreme pressures experienced during rocket launches.
Elon Musk’s aerospace giant is not anticipated to deliver positive earnings when it releases its results after market close on Tuesday. SpaceX reported losses of $4.9 billion in 2025, and many of its most ambitious projects remain years away from completion. The financial community is bracing for continued losses in the near term as the company invests heavily in its future initiatives. The impact of its earnings report is likely to rest on what Musk and his management team say during the earnings call, as so much of SpaceX’s value is based on its potential future endeavors.
Adding to the potential market impact, a lockup period is set to expire on August 6, which will permit the first wave of insider stock sales. This event has raised concerns among market watchers who fear that early investors might rush to liquidate their positions. Approximately 930 million shares of SpaceX stock will become available for trading at the end of the week, representing a value of roughly $100 billion at current market prices.
Morgan Stanley analysts released a report on Wednesday suggesting that this combination of events could result in considerable volatility and potential downside pressure on the stock. The investment bank’s data reveals that options-implied volatility for SpaceX for the week ending August 7 reached 148.7 percent, nearly double the stock’s historic average of 74.9 percent, according to information from the analytics platform Barchart.
The Morgan Stanley team anticipates that SpaceX will slightly miss earnings expectations and report a larger-than-expected loss for the quarter. However, they noted that they do not expect the results to fundamentally alter the company’s trajectory in either the near or long term. The analysts warned that shares would likely be subject to technical factors, including overall investor sentiment following the earnings announcement.
The investment bank drew an analogy to Max Q, the term used in aerospace to describe the point during a rocket launch when aerodynamic stress reaches its maximum level. A team led by Adam Jonas wrote that SpaceX shares are experiencing similar dynamic stress heading into the first reported quarter, with an unprecedented amount of unlocked shares following the second-quarter results.
Since its public debut in early June, SpaceX shares have faced challenges. The stock initially surged to $225 per share, but as Breitbart News previously reported, shares dropped below the company’s IPO price as hype fizzled out. Shares are currently trading just above $118 per share, considerably below its IPO price.
Morgan Stanley analysts outlined several key topics they expect to feature prominently in the earnings call. They predict that AI will receive the most discussion time among SpaceX’s three business segments. Regarding the company’s pending deal with Cursor, investors should not expect detailed financial information. Similarly, explicit guidance related to Starlink’s broadband adoption and recent agreements is unlikely to be provided.
The analysts anticipate that management will reiterate expectations to launch operational payloads on Starship before the end of the year. They also expect discussion of terrestrial compute expansion through the remainder of the year in Memphis and general plans beyond two gigawatts next year.
Potential negative surprises that could emerge during the earnings call include higher-than-anticipated capital expenditure projections, announcements about ending or renegotiating neocloud deals, or indications of slowing Starlink subscriber growth, according to Morgan Stanley’s analysis.
Read more at CNBC here.
Lucas Nolan is a reporter for Breitbart News covering issues of AI, free speech, and online censorship.