President Trump favoring Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn could lead to an internal GOP blame game if Paxton loses the November election to Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, RadarOnline has learned.
An unnamed operative within the Texas GOP, described as a veteran, told Politico’s Playbook newsletter if Paxton loses to Talarico in November, it is undoubtedly the president’s fault, and “Trump should blame himself.”
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Trump’s Texas Holdem
Trump’s favoritism for Paxton over Cornyn could cause Texas to turn blue, according to one unnamed operative.
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“It’s going to take a Herculean effort to hold the seat,” the operative told the outlet.
The operative, who is preparing for the possibility of a Talarico victory, predicted the Republican Party would face intense infighting if Paxton loses.
“The Monday morning quarterbacking is going to be biblical,” the operative said. “The hand-wringing and the blaming. Paxton will blame Cornyn. Trump will blame Paxton. Trump should blame himself.”
The warning comes four months after Trump backed Paxton in the Republican runoff, despite objections from Senate Republican leaders who had supported Cornyn.
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Why Trump Endorsed Ken Paxton Over John Cornyn
Trump thinks Paxton’s loyalty matters more than Cornyn’s proven record, according to sources.
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Politico reported on September 25 that Talarico has led in each of the 10 latest public polls it reviewed.
Republicans have responded with a major spending effort, with approximately $160million already spent in the race, according to the site.
Trump endorsed Paxton on May 19, ahead of the May 26 Republican runoff, after Cornyn narrowly finished ahead of Paxton in the March primary.
Trump praised Paxton as a loyal supporter and a fighter who could win.
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“Ken Paxton has my Complete and Total Endorsement to be the next United States Senator from the Great State of Texas – KEN PAXTON WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!” the president wrote on Truth Social.
Trump had previously said he might endorse one of the two Republican candidates and expected the candidate who did not receive his backing to leave the race for “the good of the party,” according to Roll Call.
Cornyn ultimately stayed in the race. Paxton defeated Cornyn in the May 26 runoff and advanced to the November general election against Talarico.
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Ken Paxton Is a Problem?
Recent polls has Paxton lagging behind James Talarico.
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Paxton entered the Senate race after years of legal and political controversy. Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023 over allegations including abuse of office, bribery, retaliation against whistleblowers, and other misconduct.
The Texas Senate later acquitted him on all 16 articles it considered. Paxton had previously been indicted in 2015 on securities-fraud charges.
The criminal case was later resolved through a pretrial diversion agreement, with the charges dismissed in 2025. After the 2020 presidential election.
He filed a lawsuit challenging election-related changes in several states as Trump sought to overturn his defeat.
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His impeachment also brought renewed scrutiny of allegations involving extramarital affairs.
Paxton and his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, divorced. She cited “biblical grounds” for the split on X.
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Republicans continue to pour money into Paxton’s campaign to beat Talarico.
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Republican leaders believed Cornyn would be a less expensive candidate to defend in the general election.
Senate GOP leaders believed Paxton could put the seat at risk and that Cornyn was performing better than Paxton in hypothetical general-election polling against Democratic candidates. Cornyn and Senate Majority Leader John Thune warned Trump before the runoff that nominating Paxton could force Republicans to spend heavily in Texas rather than in other competitive Senate races.
Cornyn said, “The money that is being spent there means it can’t be spent in New Hampshire or Michigan or Alaska or Maine or Ohio.”Republicans had therefore viewed Cornyn as a potentially less costly candidate to defend against Democrat James Talarico in the general election.
Talarico has led in all 10 of the latest public polls it reviewed by Politico, showing in the Marist University poll to be ahead by six percentage points.
Paxton has reserved $117million in advertising for a single super PAC backed by Senate Republican leaders, and as much as $200million could be spent before Election Day.
Talarico has reserved $50million in advertising since July, and his advertising money can go further because candidates receive lower advertising rates than outside political groups.