CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten spelled trouble for House Democrats on Monday after new polling found the party’s lead over Republicans on generic congressional ballots may not be enough to take control of the House in the fall.
Enten — citing polling from CNBC and The Washington Post — revealed that Democrats have a 4-point lead on average on the national U.S. House ballot, a figure that he called a “big ‘uh-oh!’ worry sign” for the party.
That’s a notably smaller lead compared to how Democrats fared on the generic ballots in 2006 and 2018, when the party held 12-point and 10-point leads, respectively, with just months to go before the midterms.
Like 2026, those two midterm years occurred under Republican presidents.
“Yes, they’re ahead. But they’re ahead… by only 4 points, which is significantly less than what we saw in 2018 and 2006, when Democrats took back the House,” he said.
“So, as I said, this is an ‘uh-oh,’ this is a warning sign.”
Enten, in response to CNN’s John Berman pointing out that such a lead might not come to Democrats’ aid in the wake of redistricting efforts, argued that the party needs to take the national House vote by a margin of 3 to 4 points.
“You are right on the edge with this 4-point lead… right on the edge of even getting that majority,” Enten said.
“And that’s why I said this is a very worrisome sign. This is troublesome for Democrats, because despite all of Donald Trump’s unpopularity in the polls, they do not seem to be building an advantage that guarantees them the House or anything close to a guarantee.”