Several U.S. senators are asking federal market regulators to crack down on prediction markets that allow wildfire-betting amid concerns that it could lead to arson.
In a letter sent this week, nine Democratic lawmakers urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to set new rules that would prevent gamblers from profiting and potentially encouraging disasters.
“Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit,” they said in a letter dated Monday. “There’s also the heightened risk — according to state and local fire officials — that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful.”
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The lawmakers flagged past bets placed through sites like Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market platform, which in early 2025 accepted more than $1.2 million in bets related to California’s Palisades and Eaton fires, according to Jamie L. Pietruska, a historian at Rutgers University who wrote on “Catastrophe markets” earlier this year for Aeon magazine.
They also highlighted the emergence of a betting platform whose website identifies it as strictly focused on profiting off fires. “What if you could trade on what fire does next?” reads the website, which lacked contact information and did not appear to be operating as of Thursday.
“By offering contracts on fires, prediction market sites run the risk of encouraging people to influence fires that have already started, creating additional concerns around public safety and insider trading,” the lawmakers said.
Currently, wildfire bets are believed to be only offered through the offshore Polymarket site, they said, adding, “it is only a matter of time before other U.S. based Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) try to offer these.”
The senators requested a response from the CFTC to several questions by Aug. 14.
Representatives with CFTC and Polymarket did not immediately respond to JS’s requests for comment.