The military junta in control of Niger since July 26 announced on Sunday that in response to a threat of invasion by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), it would shut down the country’s airspace and issue an “energetic and instant response” to any unauthorized flights over its territory.
Niger suffered a coup d’etat – the third and most successful coup so far under President Mohamed Bazoum, who was elected in 2021 – in late July, abruptly announced by the appearance of soldiers in combat gear on national television on July 27 declaring that Bazoum was no longer in charge of the country. A day later, the head of his presidential guard, General Abdourahmane Tchiani, appeared on television and declared himself president.
Abdourahmane Tchiani and other army commanders held a meeting in the capital, Niamey, Niger, on July 28, 2023. Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, the head of Nigerâs presidential guard, appeared on national television on Friday and declared himself the new leader of the country after a coup (Photo by Balima Boureima/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images).
ECOWAS, an economic coalition led by Nigeria of which Niger is a member, issued an aggressive statement following an emergency meeting on July 30 in which it gave the coup organizers one week to vacate and restore Bazoum’s authority. If they did not act by August 6, the statement read, the countries would consider the “use of force” to oust the usurpers. Last Thursday, Bazoum, from house arrest in the presidential residence, wrote an opinion article in the Washington Post asking for American and general Western military action to end the coup.
The United States maintains troops in Niger, meant to help Bazoum’s government combat multiple radical Islamist terrorist groups active in the region, and, without mentioning the potential for military conflict, issued a statement of support following the original ECOWAS declaration threatening to invade Niger.
“The United States welcomes and commends the strong leadership of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Heads of State and Government to defend constitutional order in Niger,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement, “actions that respect the will of the Nigerien people and align with enshrined ECOWAS and African Union principles of ‘zero tolerance for unconstitutional change.’”
The administration of President Joe Biden began evacuating “non-emergency” personnel from the American embassy in Niamey, Niger, last week, shortly after Pentagon leaders claimed no “imminent” threat existed against Americans in the country. Niamey is the third American embassy evacuated during Biden’s tenure, following the closures in Kabul, Afghanistan, and Khartoum, Sudan.
The situation escalated significantly last week as the governments of Burkina Faso and Mali – both established following similar coups d’etat to that of Niger – declared that “any military intervention against Niger would be tantamount to a declaration of war against Burkina Faso and Mali,” creating the possibility of a world war.
The two countries sent formal delegations to Niger on Sunday to prepare for any potential military attempt to oust the coup.
The August 6 deadline came and went with no signs of military action, in part because Nigeria, the most economically and militarily formidable ECOWAS member, failed to convince its Senate to greenlight military action. Tchiani’s coalition – which calls itself the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland – nonetheless issued decrees intended to protect the coup from such intervention. The primary action the Niger junta took was to shut down national airspace to prevent an aerial attack on the country.
“Any attempt to violate Niger’s airspace will be the subject of an energetic and instant response,” the decree read.
The decree also issued “a vibrant appeal” to the nation’s civilians to prepare for war: “The National Council for the Safeguarding of the Homeland launches a vibrant appeal to youth, to the worthy daughters and sons of our country, to stand ready for the defense of the Homeland.”
Coup organizers attempted to energize the general public by hosting a stadium rally on Sunday, reportedly attended by 30,000 people. Those in attendance celebrated the coup by blowing horns and waving Russian flags, a growing symbol of opposition to former colonial ruler, France, in the greater region.
Supporters of Niger’s ruling junta gather at the start of a protest called to fight for the country’s freedom and push back against foreign interference in Niamey, Niger, Aug. 3, 2023 (AP Photo/Sam Mednick, File).
“We urge you to remain mobilized,” one of the coup leaders, Brigadier General Mohamed Toumba, said in a speech to those assembled, adding:
The obscuring forces which are in opposition to the march forward for Niger are in the process of planning subversion. So this is the place to clarify here and tell them that we are aware of their Machiavellian plan. We will stand with you against them. Niger will be the Niger you want.
ECOWAS claimed that it was prepared to invade Niger on Sunday, despite not making any overt moves to do so.
“[A]ll the elements that will go into any eventual [military] intervention have been worked out,” ECOWAS commissioner Abdel-Fatau Musah said.
Musah emphasized, however, that “military action is a last resort. We are giving the junta every opportunity through diplomacy to have a rethink after which we will resort to military action.”
A major challenge to any such military intervention is the lack of popular support for such a measure in Nigeria. Without Nigeria, ECOWAS does not have the resources necessary for such an operation. The Nigerian newspaper This Day noted on Monday that the Nigerian Senate refused to grant President Bola Tinubu the authority to send troops to the neighboring country.
“Tinubu had, through a letter to the senate, asked for approval for military action as agreed by ECOWAS,” This Day explained, “But the senate, in rejecting the request, asked the president, who is also Chairman of regional body, and other leaders in the region to tread with caution in addressing the political quagmire in Niger.”
An anonymous Nigerian official told the newspaper that the Senate’s rejection does not necessarily prevent Tinubu from invading Niger and requesting the national legislature approve the action after the fact, but the lack of support, nonetheless, drains Tinubu, who was elected in a highly contested election in March, of his political capital at a pivotal time for his administration.
The invasion is also especially unpopular in Nigeria’s border regions with Niger, experts told This Day.
“The North-east is now saying, they are not going to accept any intervention [into Niger] because they are saying that for obvious cultural and religious affinity, these are our brothers. We will not align with military action,” Joe Keshi, a former Nigerian permanent secretary in the Foreign Affairs Ministry, was quoted as saying.
Tinubu held a meeting with the governors of the five states bordering Niger on Sunday in an attempt to galvanize support but reportedly had little success.
ECOWAS is facing mounting pressure from neighbors not to engage in military action, including leaders who themselves did not come to power in a military coup.
“We categorically refuse any military intervention,” Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune said on Saturday, the eve of the ECOWAS deadline.