Texas has been fool’s gold for Democrats for decades, but in 2026, a perfect storm is brewing that could see a Democrat finally turn Texas blue in a statewide race.
If Republicans lose a US Senate seat in Texas, there will be only one person to blame. Donald Trump ousted Republican Sen. John Cornyn in the primary and replaced him with scandal-plagued loyalist state attorney general Ken Paxton.
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Trump has wrecked the US economy and created the most anti-Republican climate in 18-20 years.
Democrats did their part by choosing a Senate nominee, James Talarico, who appeals to key groups of voters in the state by being Christian and moderate. No matter how many times Republicans try to define Talarico as weird or extreme, so far, Talarico remains more popular and electable than Paxton.
A perfect storm is building in Texas, and in a year where polling is at best challenging and at worst filled with loyal-quality junk, guidance is difficult to come by.
The AARP Poll is considered one of the nation’s gold standard polls because it uses solid polling methods, large sample sizes, and is conducted by both a Republican and a Democratic polling firm. It is a true bipartisan poll.
What the AARP Poll found in Texas should terrify Republicans.