Rubio odds for GOP 2028 nominee close to overtaking Vance on Kalshi

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is seen as increasingly likely to be the GOP nominee in 2028, according to traders on prediction market platforms.

While Vice President JD Vance is still favored by traders on Kalshi, his odds have slipped to just 33% on Monday from around 50% on Jan. 1. Rubio, meanwhile, has risen to 30% from around 12% odds.

Vance was seen as the heir to President Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement, considering his high-profile role in the administration as formally second in command. 

However, Trump has reportedly cast doubts about whether he views Vance as his successor, as most recently detailed by a report from The New York Times over the weekend. The Times said that Trump brings up Vance’s initial opposition to the war in Iran when musing over his candidacy. 

Rubio’s odds have risen throughout the year, but have sharply increased around the initiation of key military operations, including the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January and the start of the war with Iran in late February. 

Rubio also delivered a short impromptu speech from the White House press room about his hopes for America in May that he clipped into a viral short-form video, creating questions about what the Cabinet member’s plans are for 2028. 

While Rubio’s role in military conflicts has increased his chances to be the Republican nominee, those same conflicts have hurt the party’s chances of winning the presidency as Trump’s approval ratings have fallen since the start of the year. Odds that the GOP wins the White House in 2028 have fallen to 39% on Monday from 45% before the war with Iran.

Traders on Polymarket give Vance a 31% chance of being the Republican nominee in 2028, while Rubio is close behind at just under 27%. 

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.