In the wake of last weekend’s riots across France, National Rally leader Jordan Bardella’s approval rating climbed to a record high and stands head and shoulders above the rest of the field of French presidential contenders.
According to polling conducted for France’s Le Figaro newspaper from May 31 to June 2, just in the wake of the widespread mayhem and violence that erupted following the repeat Champions League Finals victory by Qatar-owned Paris Saint-Germain, 30-year-old Rassemblement National (RN) party boss Jordan Bardella saw a six-point bump in his approval rating with the public compared to last month.
Apparently yearning for a sterner approach than the wet liberal governance of President Emmanuel Macron, 47 per cent of the voting public now has a favourable view of Bardella, who has not only vowed a tougher line on law and order but has also linked the frequent unrest to the mass migration agenda imposed on the country.
While not the same as voting intention, the results show the wide appeal of the Seine-Saint-Denis-born Member of the European Parliament, who now appears to have eclipsed his longstanding political mentor, Marine Le Pen, who stands at 40 per cent approval according to the same poll.
At present, the National Rally president is considered the “plan B” for the party should the five-year ban against Le Pen standing for any election in Europe — over a dubious conviction currently being appealed over alleged misuse of EU funds for domestic political operations — polling has indicated that Bardella may fare even better than his boss.
Should the ban remain in place, it would mark the first time that a Le Pen — either Marine or her late father Jean-Marie — would not be on the presidential ballot since 1981. Although a formidable political operator in her own right, the lack of a Le Pen on the ticket may dampen the ability of the political establishment to rally voters into backing candidates whom they would not have otherwise supported to simply prevent the supposed far-right from taking power.
While young in years, Bardella has been involved in party politics since his youth and has spent nearly a decade at the side of Le Pen. He has also shown some electoral success, having spearheaded the party to victory in the 2024 European Parliament elections.
However, it is also possible that Bardella may run on a joint ticket of sorts. While Le Pen had tipped that she would select Bardella as her prime minister if she were elected in 2027, Bardella could subvert the election ban by appointing Le Pen to the office, given that it is at the sole discretion of the French president to appoint a prime minister.
Regardless of the drama surrounding the party’s candidate, the strong showing for the National Rally figures appears to put them both well ahead of the current crop of potential challengers. The survey from Le Figaro found that the next most popular candidate is Le Havre mayor and former prime minister Edouard Philippe at 29 per cent, down two points from last month following the announcement of a corruption probe into his office.
Other likely candidates include former Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau at 24 per cent, Gérald Darmanin at 22 per cent, left-liberal Raphaël Glucksman at 19 per cent, anti-mass migration polemicist Éric Zemmour at 17 per cent, and far-left LFI leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 16 per cent.
However, with the likely exception of Mélenchon, once the two-round election results in the elimination of all but one challenger for the RN, there will likely be a consolidation of support. To what extent will likely be the determining factor as to whether the populist party can cross the threshold and finally take power in Paris next year.